【作者】 王巍； 曹文佳； 姚永志；

【Author】 WANG Wei;CAO Wen-jia;YAO Yong-zhi;School of Economics,Harbin University of Commerce;School of Humanities and Social Science,Harbin Institute of Technology;

【机构】 哈尔滨商业大学经济学院； 哈尔滨工业大学人文社会科学学院；

【摘要】 关于经济增长与就业的讨论是一个传统的话题,两者的相互关系也是众说纷纭。在实践层面进行量化分析将会得到具有一定参考价值的结论,选择北京市经济总量、三次产业就业人数,以及三次产业产值作为研究指标,采集1990年到2013年北京市的相关统计数据作为研究变量,构建状态空间模型进行检验和估计,分析产业就业人数对经济发展的影响,将产业就业人数对产业发展的影响辅之以验证所得结果。以此分析两者之间的联动效应,十二五期间,北京市第一产业就业人数对经济增长呈现负向影响,程度较弱约为0.025%~0.045%;第二产业就业人数对经济增长呈现负向影响,程度较强约为1.18%~1.20%;第三产业就业人数对经济增长呈现正向影响,程度较平稳约为0.62%~0.64%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The discussion between economic growth and employment was a traditional topic,the relationship of them was also different.Quantitative analysis in practice will obtain some benefit results.In the paper,the total of economy,the three industry employment,the three industrial output value in Beijing were regarded as the research index,the relevant statistical data from 1990 to 2013 were taken as the research variables,the state space model was set up to test and estimate the impact of industrial employment on economic development,the industrial development led by industrial employment was used to verify the results.The linkage effects were shown as follows:the first industry employment of Beijing has negative effect on economic growth,and the degree is weak about 0.025%~0.045%;the second industry employment has negative effect on economic growth,and the degree is strong about 1.18%~1.20%;the third industry employment has a positive effect on economic growth,the degree is more stable about 0.62%~0.64%.更多还原