【作者】 蒋祥林； 吴晓霖； 傅天叶；

【Author】 JIANG Xiang-lin;WU Xiao-lin;FU Tian-ye;Economics School,Fudan University;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science &Tehcnology;

【机构】 复旦大学经济学院； 上海理工大学管理学院；

【摘要】 采用2002-2011年中国35个中心城市的面板数据,在供应和需求的理论框架下讨论我国城市的商品住宅价格市场的量价特征,探究影响供需关系的因素对我国城市商品住宅价格的影响。实证检验发现,我国城市新建住宅的价格和成交量与供求的基本影响因素——居民收入与住宅开发成本存在长期的稳定关系。实证发现城市间的房价差异可以通过居民收入和住宅开发成本的差异性对供求关系的影响得到有效解释。高房价的城市多为东部沿海经济发达的一线城市,表现为需求旺盛,供给不足;中等房价城市多为经济较发达的二线城市,受到收入限制需求相对较弱,供给充足;低房价城市为中西部经济欠发达的城市,受城市化水平限制,人口集聚效应较小,并且潜在需求还受到收入水平的限制没有完全转化为有效需求,表现为供过于求。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the panel data of 35 central cities in China during the period of 2002-2011,this paper discusses the characteristics of quantity and price of urban residential housing in China under the theoretical framework of supply and demand.Empirical researchresult shows thatthere is a stable long-term relationship between the prices and quantitiesof urban residential housing and basic factors of supply and demand- income and costs.Moreover,empirical findings can also effectively explain the impact of urban heterogeneity on supply and demand,and reveal the sourcesof the heterogeneity accounting for price differences among cities.Cities with high housing prices are mostly developed cities along the east coast,with hugehousing demand and inadequate supply;Cities with moderate housing prices are mostly second-tier cities,in which the demand has been partially met previously and is therefore weak,while the supply is adequate;Cities with low housing prices are mainly underdeveloped cities in central and western regions.Limited by the rather low level of urbanization appearing as smaller population,the potential demand is relatively small.Besides,the low income levellimits the transformation of potential demand to effective demand,finally causing the effects of oversupply.更多还原