【作者】 张丽； 李磊； 梁碧玲； 张立杰；

【Author】 ZHANG Li;LI Lei;Pak Wai Chan;LIANG Biling;ZHANG Lijie;Shenzhen National Climate Observatory;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China;Hong Kong Obervatory;Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality;

【机构】 深圳市国家气候观象台； 深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室； 深圳市气象局；

【摘要】 利用深圳市近35年的经济、环境和污染物浓度数据,分析了深圳市经济产业结构对大气环境的影响。结果表明,深圳市灰霾日数、污染物浓度与人均GDP、人口数量的拟合曲线呈"倒U型"分布,空气质量随着经济发展先恶化后好转,拐点出现在2005年前后。利用库兹涅茨曲线方法分析了空气质量随经济发展出现拐点的原因,主要结论如下:(1)近35年来深圳市产业结构发生了重大变化,第二、第三产业比重不断提高。2005年第三产业比重增长迅速,随后稳定超过第二产业。(2)第二产业中工业产值比重的减少,与灰霾减少相关性最高(系数R~2=0.8986)。高新技术产品踏上了一个新的台阶,产值占工业总产值的比重由2004年的38%增加至2005年的48%,同比增加了10%。(4)第三产业比重增加对灰霾减少起到了重用作用。从第三产业各行业产值与灰霾的拟合关系来看,相关系数R~2达到0.5以上的行业包括房地产、交通运输仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业。(5)2005年之后单位能耗的降低,环境保护投资的增加、污染物排放的减少也是灰霾减少的原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 Impacts of economic and industrial structures in Shenzhen on atmospheric environment are analyzed by utilizing economic, environmental and pollutant concentration data of Shenzhen over the past 35 years. The results show that the fitted curves between number of haze days, pollutant concentration versus GDP per capita and population of Shenzhen were distributed in an "inverted U-shaped". As economy develops, air quality first deteriorated and then improved with the turning point appearing in around 2005. The reasons for the turnaround in air quality were analyzed by Kuznets Curve, and the main conclusions are as follows:(1) Industrial structure of Shenzhen has changed dramatically over the past 35 years with the proportions of secondary and tertiary industries were increased continuously. The proportion of tertiary industry grew rapidly in 2005, and has been steadily exceeded that of secondary industry.(2) In secondary industry, the decrease of proportion from industrial output had the highest correlation with the decrease of haze(the coefficient R~2=0.8986).(3) High-tech products have also reached a new level, and its proportion in the total industrial output has increased from 38% in 2004 to 48% in 2005, with the proportion grew by 10% Yo Y.(4) The increase of proportion of tertiary industry played a crucial role in reducing haze. From the fitted relations between outputs of various sectors in tertiary industry and haze, sectors with a correlation coefficient R~2 of over 0.5 include real estate, transportation, storage, logistics, accommodation and catering services.(5) After 2005, the reduction of unit energy consumption, the increase of investment in environmental protection and the reduction of pollutant emissions were also the reasons for the decrease in haze.更多还原