【作者】 梁礼铿； 黎敬波； 马力； 古继红； 张小虎； 王黎；

【Author】 LIANG Li-keng;LI Jing-bo;MA Li;GU Ji-hong;ZHANG Xiao-hu;WANG Li;Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine;

【机构】 广州中医药大学；

【摘要】 目的:通过气温余弦曲线,探讨主运、主气与地面气温均值的关系。方法:统计分析在R 3.2.0上进行,对广州、北京60年日平均气温数据分别按照日期、主运、主气分组计算均值并进行余弦曲线拟合及方差分析并对运气年2012到2014年进行预测。结果:余弦曲线对各日60年日平均气温均值及年内各个主运、主气平均气温都拟合良好,调整后R2均在0.95以上,同一主气主运下,各个司天组及各个岁运组平均气温差异无统计意义(P>0.20),预测结果R2均大于0.94,真实值基本在95%CI内。结论:余弦曲线适用于拟合各日60年日平均气温均值及年内各个主运、主气平均气温,并能反映主运主气的稳定性特征、南北方地区的气候寒热差异、气候寒热变化的特征及气候寒热变化的周期特征,同时支持大寒节气为运气年交气日的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To discuss the relationship among air temperature, Host Evolutive Phase(HEP)and Host Climatic Qi(HCQ) by cosine line. Methods: All data were processed by R 3.2.0. We computed the mean and standard of air temperatures which group by date, HEP and HCQ respectively. Then they were fitted by cosine line model and analyzed by One-way ANOVA. At last, we predicted the temperatures in 2012-2014.Result: Cosine line model fits the mean temperature of date, HEP and HCQ, and all of adjust r square are above 0.95. According to One-way ANOVA, there is no significant difference among celestial manager qi and year evolutive phase while in the same HEP or HCQ(P>0.20). The r square of predictions are above 0.94 and the real temperatures are almost in 95%CI. Conclusion: Cosine line model can be used to fit the mean temperature of date, HEP and HCQ. The models can reflect some characteristics of HEP and the HCQ, such as: the characteristics of stabilities, regionalism change, climatic change and period. And the models also support the viewpoint that the origin of year is the Great Cold.更多还原