【作者】 单施超； 赵博；

【机构】 贵阳中医学院基础医学院；

【摘要】 目的:长期以来运气学说的争鸣一直困扰着学术界,相关争论愈演愈烈。方法:依据相关文献资料和古气象学研究成果,揭示两千年气候变化的基本态势。结果:两千多年来我国气候以渐变和突变两种模式呈阶段性演化;旱涝气候演化存在4条界线;公元280年和1230年发生的2次明显的气候突变,将2000年来的气候演化分为3个主要时期;公元280-480年气候系统逐步稳定于混沌轨道,公元880年后开始脱离混沌轨道量变,公元1230年气候突变后重新进入正常吸引引子轨道。结论:在气候的可预报上,中期数值天气预报逐日预报的可预报时限大约是两三周左右的时间,因此,进行长期预报是不可能的。运气预测结果与气候变迁史实或基本趋势存在显著差异,可能是运气学说争鸣的根源。更多还原

【Abstract】 The growing debate about the theory of five elements motion and six kinds of natural factors was perplexes academic circles for a long time. The trend of climatic evolution during last 2000 years had been showed by relative literature data and research results on pale-meteorology. The evolution of climate in gradual change and mutation mode was staged during last 2000 years. There were four important lines about the climatic evolution on drought. There were two abrupt climate change events in 280 A.D. and 1230 A.D., which divided the climate during last 2000 years into three periods. Climate system stabilizing at chaotic orbits gradually during 280 A.D. to 480 A.D., which was break away from chaotic orbits before 880 A.D., and then come back to attractor orbits before abrupt climate change in 880 A.D.. Time limit of the predictability of medium range weather forecasting was about two or three weeks on the climatic predictability, so, long-term forecast was impossible. The theory’s forecast was different from what the climatic evolution really was, maybe, that was the origin of the theory’s debates.更多还原