【作者】 王加义； 陈家金； 林晶； 杨凯； 马治国； 黄榕城； 徐宗焕；

【Author】 WANG Jia-yi;CHEN Jia-jin;LIN Jing;YANG Kai;MA Zhi-guo;XU Zong-huan;Institute of Meteorology in Fujian Province;

【机构】 福建省气象科学研究所； 福建省气象局；

【摘要】 利用1978~2008年福建省农业水灾受灾和成灾面积数据,以灾情(受灾和成灾)指数反映水灾的影响范围,以成受比(成灾与受灾指数的比值)指数反映水灾影响强度,基于正态信息扩散计算方法对农业水灾进行风险评估,利用发生频次法对评估结果进行检验。结果表明:农业受水灾影响的风险概率随风险指数提高而下降;在相同风险指数下,成受比风险概率>受灾风险概率>成灾风险概率;受灾、成灾、成受比的平均风险概率分别为0.4487、0.48、0.6516,水灾对福建农业的影响比较频繁,影响范围和强度比较严重。风险评估结果与实际情况基本相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the statistical data of flooding stricken area and disaster area during the period of 1978-2008 in Fujian Province, the disaster index reflect the influence area of flood, the disaster and affected index ratio(DSR) reflect the influence intensity of flood, the flooding risk assessment of agriculture was obtained based on the theory of normal information diffusion, and the result of assessment was validated by occurrence frequency method. The results showed that:the probability of flooding risk on agriculture declined with the increase of risk level; as the same risk index, the risk probability of DSR was higher than the probability of stricken risk, and the probability of stricken risk is higher than the probability of risk disaster; the average probability of stricken risk and disaster risk and DSR was 0.4487 and 0.48 and 0.6516 respectively; the influence of flood was comparatively frequent, and the influence area was comparatively serious. Data analysis and risk assessment results are basically consistent with the actual situation.更多还原