【作者】 黄川容； 陈家金； 郑东旗； 王加义； 林晶； 李丽纯； 徐宗焕；

【Author】 HUANG Chuan-rong;CHEN Jia-jin;ZHENG dong-Qi;WANG Jia-yi;LIN-jing;LI Li-chun;XU Zong-huan;Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science;Fuzhou Meteorological Bureau;

【机构】 福建省气象科学研究所； 福州市气象局；

【摘要】 基于对福建番木瓜引种的寒(冻)害的致灾因子危险性和防寒防冻能力分析,利用福建南亚热带番木瓜引种区历年气象资料和其它社会经济资料,构建番木瓜引种寒(冻)害的综合风险评估指标体系;应用层次分析法和熵权系数法确定风险指标权重,采用多指标综合分析法构建风险评估模型,利用模型计算评估单元的风险指数并制作风险精细区划图,对福建省引种番木瓜的寒(冻)害风险进行评价与区划。结果表明:福建番木瓜引种的寒(冻)害低风险区主要分布在晋江市以南沿海县市的低平区域,该区适宜番木瓜引种;中风险区主要分布在长乐市至泉州的沿海低平区域,厦门同安区、漳州的龙海县、长泰县、漳州市辖区的大部低平区域及漳浦县、云霄县、诏安县的部分区域,该区可作为次适宜引种区域;其余可能引种区寒(冻)害风险较高,其中高海拔地区风险高,不适宜引种。历史个例验证表明,风险评估结果与实际情况较相符,可为番木瓜的合理布局及防灾减灾提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of potential hazard of cold(freezing) damage and prevention capability of cold(freezing) damage, according to yearly meteorological data and other socio-economic data in papaya potential introduction area, an index system for the risk assessment on cold(freezing) damage of papaya introduced was established. Combined with the AHP and entropy-weight coefficient method, the indicator weight was determined, and risk assessment model was constructed by using the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. Then the comprehensive index was calculated and the division map was drawn for the risk analysis and division of cold(freezing) damage of papaya introduction. The results showed that the low risk regions were located in coastal areas with low elevation to the south of Jinjiang because of light disaster-causing factors and low but could be great prompted prevention capacity. The medium risk regions were distributed in coastal areas with low elevation from Changle to Quanzhou, and most low elevation areas of Longhai, Changtai and Zhangzhou city, and part areas of Zhangpu, Yunxiao and Zhao’an. Other regions were located at high risk, the high latitude areas were even with higher risk. Verified by historical examples, risk assessment results were more consistent with actual situation, therefore, research results have good application, can provide reference for papaya planting pattern and disaster prevention.更多还原