【作者】 徐建文； 居辉； 梅旭荣； 刘勤； 杨建莹；

【Author】 XU Jian-Wen;JU Hui;MEI Xu-Rong;LIU Qin;YANG Jian-Ying;State Key Engineering Laboratory of Crops Efficient Water Use and Drought Mitigation, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture;Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture;

【机构】 大连市气象服务中心； 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室； 农业部农业环境重点开放实验室； 农业部旱作节水农业重点实验室；

【摘要】 为了探明黄淮海平原冬小麦需水关键生育阶段干旱对产量的潜在影响,该文基于黄淮海平原6个农业亚区典型站点的1981-2010年气象数据及田间观测资料,使用作物模型DSSAT模拟探讨了近30a冬小麦关键生育阶段潜在干旱对产量的影响,并分析了各典型站点干旱减产的概率分布以及典型丰水和缺水年土壤水分的变化规律与产量的关系。研究结果表明:DSSAT模型的区域模拟误差在可接受的范围内,调试的区域品种3H能够代表黄淮海平原冬小麦品种进行区域模拟。黄淮海平原冬小麦需水关键生育阶段潜在干旱减产率在1980s均呈现出明显减轻的趋势。冬小麦拔节-抽穗期的潜在干旱减产率由南向北逐渐加重,黄淮海农作区天津(Ⅰ区)、石家庄(Ⅱ区)和莘县(Ⅲ区)的减产率超过了40%,临沂(Ⅳ区)、商丘(Ⅴ区)、寿县(Ⅵ区)分别为38%、27%、13%,此干旱减产的区域差异主要是由各地气候因素的差异所导致。另外,黄淮海平原冬小麦同一水平的干旱减产率,在拔节-抽穗期发生的概率要远大于灌浆期的概率,北部地区冬小麦在拔节-抽穗期同一水平的潜在干旱减产率要明显高于南部地区,而在灌浆期的概率差别不明显。该研究可为黄淮海平原冬小麦实际生产过程中的抗旱管理与合理灌溉提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grain yields of rainfed winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai plain are often low and vary substantially from season to season. In the past several decades, amount of precipitation in the 3H plain has fallen dramatically. By contrast, agricultural water consumption is so great that water resource is insufficient, in which case, underground water is excessively exploited and irrigation water is far from enough. Under the backdrop of great climate changes, lack of irrigation water and severe drought will potentially impact yield of winter wheat. Simulates the effect of drought on winter wheat have been identified as important contributors to agricultural production in such environments. In this paper, based on meteorological data and field observations of 6 typical meteorological stations from each agricultural sub-region of 3H plain from 1981 to 2010, we determined yield reduction rate of potential drought in critical growth stages of winter wheat on the 3H plain. Then we analyzed the probability distribution of yield reduction of 6 typical sites and the relationship between variation of soil moisture and yield in typical wet and dry years. The results show the regional simulation capability is acceptable and the 3H could be the representative variety of winter wheat in 3H plain for simulation. Serious regional distribution was showed gradually from south to north of yield reduction rate in jointing stage to heading stage, and the yield reduction rate in agricultural region Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ were more than-40%, and-38%,-27%,-13% respectively in region Ⅳ, Ⅴ and Ⅵ. The regional distribution of yield reduction rate of each agricultural region caused by species difference was mainly caused by the climatic factors. In addition, the probability of the same level of yield reduction rate in jointing to heading stage was much larger than that in filling stage. The probability of the same level of yield reduction rate in northern region was much larger than that in partial southern area. In the drought years, irrigation is needed to provide water for the soil surface layer to meet demand from winter wheat. If drought happens in the jointing-heading stage and the deep-layer soil water is insufficient, the wheat has to rely on irrigation to provide sufficient water for its later growth stage. If drought happens in the filling stage, the wheat root systems have to grow down deeper to get more water, which will cause reduction in the wheat yield. China has insufficient water resource, which is especially true in North China. The limited water resource shall be applied in critical regions and stages. Water saving and drought prevention are a long-term task. Prediction shall be made on water stress in key growth stages and simulation analysis performed on crop models to determine potential yield reduction due to drought, thereby to make reasonable and scientific irrigation measures. This will have referential value for evading drought risks and developing water-saving agriculture under climate changes. The results are expected to provide basic information for drought management and rational irrigation of winter wheat in 3H plain by focusing on the potential drought in critical growth stages of winter wheat.更多还原