【作者】 任永建； 周波涛； 宋连春； 肖莺；

【Author】 Ren Yongjian;Zhou Botao;Song Lianchun;Xiao Ying;College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration;National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration;

【机构】 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院； 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室； 中国气象局国家气候中心；

【摘要】 本文利用16个CMIP5模式输出的20世纪气候(his)、RCP4.5和RCP8.5下数值试验模拟结果,分析了东亚夏季降水年际变率在21世纪的变化过程。模式可以再现20世纪东亚和西北太平洋较强的年际变率。模式集合平均结果显示,RCP4.5情景下年际变率在21世纪20年代中期、40年代末以及60年代初发生三次突变,RCP8.5下的年际变率在40年代中期、60年代初发生两次突变。RCP4.5下21世纪初东亚夏季降水年际变率区域性变化差异显著,与1986-2005年相比,华南和中国南海地区偏高幅度在0.5mm/day以上,日本南部、东北地区年际变率偏低0.3-0.5mm/day。进入21世纪中期,东亚夏季降水年际变率呈大范围增强,降水年际变率的增强呈两条带状分布,即梅雨区和热带西太平洋地区。21世纪末期,梅雨区年际变率幅度进一步增强,热带地区年际变率变为显著的正距平。RCP8.5下21世纪初表现出与RCP4.5下一致的区域性特征。进入21世纪中期,梅雨区年际变率变化显著增强。21世纪末期,梅雨区降水年际变率进一步增强,副热带和西太平洋年际变率显著增强,长江中下游降水年际变率负距平增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, based on 16 numerical models under20 th century climate(his), RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 from CMIP5, the interannual variability of summer precipitation over East Asianin the 21 st century is projected. Models can reproduce strong interannual variability over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific in the 20 th century. Model ensemble average results show that the interannual variability under RCP4.5 occursthree mutations in the mid-2020 s, the late 2040 s and early 2060 s, andoccurs twice mutationsunder RCP8.5 in the mid-2040 s and2060s. By the early 2000 s under RCP4.5,interannual variability of summer precipitation shows significantly regional changes.Compared to 1986-2005, the interannual variability over South China and South China Sea is more than 0.5mm/day, while over southern Japan and Northeast China is less than 0.3-0.5mm/day. The interannual variability of East Asian summer precipitationincreases in the mid-21 st century, with the plum rain region and the tropical western Pacific. The interannual variability of plum rain region further enhancesandinterannual variability in the tropics becomes significant positive anomalies in the late 21 st century. The interannual variability under RCP8.5 showsconsistent regional characteristics with RCP4.5 in the early 21 st century. The interannual variability of the plum rain area significantly enhances in the mid-21 st century. The interannual variability overplum rain region further enhances,and interannual variability over the subtropical Western Pacific increases significantly.The interannual variability over Yangtze River anomalies is negative in the late 21 st century.更多还原