【作者】 张述文； 刘源； 曹帮军； 李少英；

【Author】 ZHANG Shu-wen;LIU Yuan;CAO Bang-jun;LI Shao-ying;Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University;

【机构】 兰州大学大气科学学院/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室；

【摘要】 利用GLDAS同化产品和12个参与CMIP5模式的输出结果,从土壤湿度对降水影响的2个中间环节出发,通过分析陆面耦合指数ILH、潜热通量-抬升凝结高度耦合指数ILCL以及抬升凝结高度ZLCL间接研究中国区域土壤湿度与降水间耦合特征,并对1958-2013年及RCP4.5排放路径下50年(2006-2055年)4个代表性区域夏季耦合强度的年代际变化特征进行分析。研究发现:1958-2013年间,内蒙古阴山山脉附近、新疆和青海的部分地区为夏季中国土壤湿度与降水耦合的最强区域;陆面耦合指数ILH变化幅度从高到低依次出现在华北、华南、ILH大值区和西北地区,并在20世纪70年代中到80年代中发生转折。2006-2055年,平均而言,预估内蒙古阴山山脉附近仍为耦合最强区;与历史时期(1958-2005年)比较,新疆中部和内蒙古阴山山脉附近的耦合指数ILH增大,而广西和广东地区的则减小;对于耦合指数ILH的年代际变化,2026-2035年间华北最大而华南最小;西北地区变化不大,而ILH大值区的耦合强度逐渐增大。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the view of point of two intermediate processes for soil moisture influencing precipitation with the aid of GLDAS data and 12 sets of CMIP5 model outputs, the characteristics of soil moisture-precipitation coupling are indirectly investigated by analyzing the land surface coupling index ILH, the coupling index ILCL between latent heat flux and the lifting condensation level ZLCL, and ZLCL. Then the decadal variations of the summer coupling indices are analyzed in the four representative regions from 1958 to 2013 and from 2006 to 2055 under RCP4.5 emissions path. The results show that from 1958 to 2013, the larger summer coupling index ILH is located around Yin Mountains in Inner Mongolia, parts of Xinjiang and Qinghai Province. The decadal variations of the summer coupling indices decreases in order in north of China, south of China, the region with an averagely larger ILH and northwest of China. The abrupt change of the indices is found in the mid-1970 s to the mid-1980 s. From 2006 to 2055, the region with an averagely larger ILH is still near the Yin Mountains. Compared with the historical period(1958-2005), the land surface coupling index ILH will increase near the center region of Xinjiang Province and around Yin Mountains, while the degree of coupling in Guangxi and Guangdong Province will reduce. For decadal variation, the north of China is the strongest coupling region and the south of China the weakest from 2026 to 2035 year, but in northwest of China few changes will happen and ILH in the region with the larger value will gradually increase.更多还原