【作者】 季永兴； 卢永金； 张燎军；

【Author】 JI Yong-xing;LU Yong-jin;ZHANG Liao-jun;Shanghai Water Engineering Design and Research Institute;Shanghai Sea Reclamation Engineering Technology Research Center;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering of Hohai University;

【机构】 上海市水利工程设计研究院； 上海围海工程技术研究中心； 河海大学水利水电学院；

【摘要】 综合分析海堤遭受的内因与外因、人为与自然、结构与水文等因素作用和海堤失效模式,研究提出在分解分析法基础上采用核对表法系统识别海堤安全影响因素,并基于失效模式和事故树法对主要风险因素进行了层次划分。研究结果表明:1)海堤工程系统存在越浪或漫溢、滑动和塌陷、渗透变形、坡面冲刷、交叉建筑物及其他形式失效等五种失效模式;2)对海堤风险分解分析后再采用核对表法,可系统全面掌握影响海堤安全的总体风险;3)利用事故树分析方法对海堤安全因素进行层次划分,可综合考虑海堤各风险因子相互影响,并可清晰地分析各风险因子与五种失效模式之间的关系。最后,研究指出对海堤风险因素进行层次划分可为定量或定性地描述影响安全防护措施的现状性能及分析各种可能失效路径下的风险率提供可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Comprehensive analyzes of failure modelsof sea-dike in multi-factors action,such as internal and external,human and natural,structure and hydrology,and other factors,and suggests systematicallyidentifyingsea-dike security factorsby the checklist methodbasis of decomposition analysis andhierarchically dividingthe factors based on failure modelsand fault tree analysis(FTA).The main fruits as below:1) There are five types of failure models for sea-dike engineering system,overtopping or overflow,sliding and sink,seepage deformation,intersect structures and others failure;2) The checklist methodbasis of decomposition analysiscan systematicallyand comprehensively identify all the sea-dike security factors;3)The hierarchically divisionof the factors based on fault tree analysis can consider various risk factors interact and can clearly analyze each risk factor and the relationshipsofthe five failure modes.At last,it presents that the hierarchically division can offer possibility fordescribingthe security measures performance and status quantitatively or qualitatively and analyzing the risk rate for every possible failure path.更多还原