【作者】 张忠会； 谢义苗； 何乐彰； 孙建华； 姚峰；

【Author】 ZHANG Zhong-hui;XIE Yi-miao;HE Le-zhang;SUN Jian-hua;YAO Feng;School of Information Engineering,Nanchang University;Electric power company Of Henan;

【机构】 南昌大学信息工程学院； 河南省电力公司；

【摘要】 综述了目前风险理论应用于电力系统的研究现状,提出了基于风险理论的电力系统脆弱线路辨识方法。首先,分析了应用风险理论进行电力系统脆弱线路辨识的可行性;然后,根据风险理论的特点提出辨识脆弱线路的过负荷风险指标,并采用蒙特卡洛法模拟求取系统过负荷概率及应用效用理论计算过负荷严重度;最后,以IEEERTS79系统为例,验证了基于风险理论的电力系统脆弱线路辨识是可行的。通过基于风险理论的电力系统脆弱线路辨识分析,能够清楚的知道每条线路过负荷风险的大小,确定重点关注线路,对电网建设改造、运行控制有一定的参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Provide a summary of the current research status of risk theory applied to the power system,and put forward an identificationmethod of vulnerable lines which is based on risk theory.First,analyze the feasibility of applying risk theory to the identification of vulnerable lines in power system.Then put forward the overload risk index which helps identify the vulnerable lines according to the characteristics of risk theory,and calculate the system overload probability with method of Monte Carlo,and calculate the severity of overload with utility theory;the last,take IEEE-RTS 79 system for example,verify the feasibility of the identification method of vulnerable lines based on risk theory.By the identification of vulnerable lines in power system based on risk theory,each line’s overload risk can be clearly shown.Then determine the key line.It has certain reference significance on the construction,transformation and operation control of power grid.更多还原