【作者】 许威； 张忠会； 何乐彰；

【Author】 XU Wei;ZHANG Zhonghui;HE Lezhang;School of Information Engineering,Nanchang University;

【机构】 南昌大学信息工程学院；

【摘要】 电网失负荷计算能反映电网事故的严重程度,是进行电网运行安全风险评估的重要内容。基于多因素对电网元件停运概率的影响,分析了电网元件停运概率的可修复失效模型、老化失效模型及天气相依的偶然失效模型三者之间的关系,采用并集的概念建立了电网元件停运概率模型,在此基础上提出了一种电网失负荷计算方法。并以IEEE-RTS79系统为例,采用蒙特卡洛法对系统状态进行抽样,通过该失负荷算法计算出电网失负荷概率及失负荷量,验证了该种方法的有效性和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Loss of load calculation in power grid which could reflect the severity of power grid accident is an important part of power grid operation risk assessment.Based on multiple factors that influenced the probability of component outage,analyze the relationship among the repairable failure model,aging failure model and the weather dependent incidentally failure model.Then apply the concept of union to establish a model which could calculate the outage probability.After that,put forward a method of loss of load calculation.Finally taking the IEEE RTS-79 system for example,carry out the sampling of system state by using the Monte-Carlo method,get the probability and loss of grid load and verifies the feasibility of the method.更多还原