【作者】 姚峰； 张忠会； 何叶；

【Author】 Yao feng;Zhang zhong-hui;He ye;School of Information Engineering,Nanchang university;

【机构】 河南省电力公司； 南昌大学；

【摘要】 元件停运模型的建立是电网安全风险评估中的一个重要环节。本文综合考虑了可修复失效、老化失效及天气相依三方面因素,通过历史统计数据得出可修复失效模型,运用正态分布模拟元件老化失效模型,结合两状态的天气相依模型,最终得出元件停运概率模型。并利用IEEE-RTS96中的一条实际线路证明文中模型的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Element failure model of the power grid safety risk assessment is one of the most important links.This paper synthetically consider the repairable failure,aging failure and weather dependent three factors,Through the historical data we can get the repairable failure model,Using the normal distribution to simulate the element aging failure model,through two status weather dependent model,finally we arrived at the element outage probability model.A practical circuit of the IEEE-RTS96 system can prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,through the element outage probabihty model,we can know the variation of the element failure rate with various factors more clearly,which is of certain guiding significance on maintenance planning and operational management of the grid elements.更多还原