【作者】 孙兆彬； 陶燕； 崔甍甍； 安兴琴； 马小会； 张德山； 杨红强；

【Author】 SUN Zhao-bin;TAO Yan;CUT Meng-meng;AN Xing-qin;MA Xiao-hui;ZHANG De-shan;Institute of Urban Meteorology,Beijing,China Meteorological Administration;Environment Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,China Meteorological Administration;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University;Beijing Emergency Medical Center;China Meteorological Administration;Beijing Meteorological Service Center;Air Force of 94683 troops 23;

【机构】 中国气象局城市气象研究所； 中国气象局京津冀环境气象预报预警中心； 兰州大学资源环境学院； 北京急救中心； 中国气象科学研究院； 北京市公共气象服务中心； 空军94683部队23分队；

【摘要】 为了探讨2008年奥运会前后减排和限行措施对北京居民心脑血管健康的影响,调查了2006-2010年7-9月的空气质量状况及心脑血管疾病市急救中心日入院人次,采用时间序列方法中的非参数广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因素的影响后,分析了北京PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病日八院人次的暴露-反应关系,并按性别、年份建立了模型。结果表明,PM2.5对心脑血管疾病的影响具有-定的滞后效应,全人群、男性人群、女性人群滞后均为0~2d,在2006-2010年7-9月中,2008年三个人群的RR均最小,2009年RR最大。当北京地区PM2.5日均浓度增加10μg/m~3,2008年三个人群日入院人次增加百分比分别为男性人群0.18%,女性人群0.07%,全人群近似0 00%,而三个人群日入院人次增加百分比分最大值均在2009年,分别为男性人群3 43%、女性人群2.10%、全人群2.97%。2008年7-9月采取的相关政策措施对降低了北京地区居民心脑血管疾病的发病风险具有重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate reduction and restrictions measures on the health of residents of disease of heart and head blood-vessel before and after the 2008 Olympic Gaines in Beijing,surveyed air quality situation and the number of disease of heart and head blood-vessel during 2006-2010 from July to September,using time series method of nonparametric generali7 ed additive model(GAM),after controlling for the long-term trend, "week effect",and the influence of meteorological factors,analyzes the concentrations of PM2.5 in Beijing and the number of disease of heart and head blood-vessel,exposure response relationship,and established a model by sex and year.Results show that There is lag effect on the influence of PM2.5 on disease of heart and head blood-vessel,the total population,the male,the female who are 0 ~ 2 d.In 7-9 months in 2006-2008,the RR value of the total population,the male and the female is less than other years in 2008,the maximum RR value is in 2009.When the concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing average daily increase 10 mu g/m~3,the percentage increase in three groups,in2008 male population 0.18%,respectively,0.07%female,0.0%the total population,and three kinds of people call the number increases 2maximum percentage score in 2009,the male population 3.43%,female 3.43%respectively,the total population 2.97%.In 2008,from July to September,relevant policies plays an important role on reducing The residents risk of disease of lieart and head blood-vessel in Beijing area.更多还原