【作者】 宋恩武； 贾超； 李朋； 张国荣；

【Author】 Song Enwu;Jia Chao;Li Peng;Zhang Guorong;Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Shandong University;

【机构】 山东省地矿工程勘察院； 山东大学土建与水利学院；

【摘要】 盐岩地下储气库因其良好的使用功能,愈发被世界各国所采用,因此,对盐岩储气库运营期的风险分析与寿命预测具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。客观存在的诸多不确定性因素导致很难采用确定性方法对其进行研究。马尔可夫概率预测模型能够以概率的形式反映出系统的不确定性,因而计算结果更为客观、可靠。将马尔可夫理论引入到盐岩地下储气库风险分析与寿命预测中,以国内某盐岩地下储气库为例,建立其马尔可夫模型,基于随机力学的方法,通过数值模拟计算及可靠性分析得出了储气库运行状态转移概率矩阵;利用转移概率矩阵,并根据马尔可夫模型中的吸收状态和平均吸收时间的概念对储气库进行寿命预测,取得了较好的预测效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Underground salt rock gas storage is increasingly adopted around the world because of its good operation features. Therefore,it is very significant to study the risk analysis and life prediction of underground salt rock gas storage during its operation period. Objective uncertainties make it difficult to study the storages with deterministic method. The Markov probability prediction model can reflect the uncertainty of the system,so it is more objective and reliable. The Markov theory is introduced into the risk analysis and life prediction of underground salt rock gas storage. A salt-rock gas storage in China is studied as an example and its Markov model is established. Based on stochastic mechanism method,the transitional probability matrix of the salt rock gas storage is figured out by numerical simulation and reliability analysis. The transitional probability matrix and the concept of absorbing state and mean absorption time are used for life prediction of salt rock gas storage and preferable predicting outcomes are obtained.更多还原