【作者】 李莉； 黄成； 陈长虹； 王海鲲； 戴懿；

【Author】 LI Li,HUANG Cheng ,CHEN Chang-hong ,WANG Hai-kun ,DAI Yi (Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233; Resources and Environmental Engineering Institute, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237,China)

【机构】 上海市环境科学研究院； 华东理工大学资源与环境工程学院；

【摘要】 根据上海市交通模式零方案的增长趋势,利用Leap模型预测了未来城市交通能耗状况,并采用IVE模型对机动车主要尾气污染物的排放量进行预测。在此基础上,提出发展LPG出租车及CNG清洁燃料公交车,并对此情景下的能耗及尾气排放进行了预测。模型计算结果显示, 如果上海市在未来20年内控制摩托车增长,优先发展公共交通,有序发展小汽车,积极发展轨道交通,并大力发展清洁能源汽车,那么可以预计,到2020年全市道路能源需求量为183PJ,其中汽油需求量达到139PJ,分别比基础情景下削减16．9％,22％。在尾气控制方面,如果自2006年起建立集中型I／M检测网络,加强老旧车辆的淘汰,与此同时分别提高公交和出租车新车中CNG车辆和 LPG车辆的比重,那么到2020年全市机动车CO,VOC,NOx和PM排放量将分别达到113．9 万t,9．5万t,9．4万t和0．25万t,分别比基础情景削减了24．8％、18．1％、22．3％和21．8％。研究结果表明,在能源需求日益紧迫的情况下,大力发展清洁能源汽车,对于缓解上海市日益紧张的石油供应压力、减少机动车尾气排放有着十分重要的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on increasing trend of Shanghai vehicles under BAU scenario, we predicted the energy consumption of urban transportation in future. Moreover, we have adopted WE model to calculate the vehicle emissions of the major pollutants. On this BAU mode, we put forward a scenario of developing LPG taxis and CNG buses. Energy consumption and vehicle emissions have been estimated for this scenario. Results show that, if the development of motorcycle is controlled, buses are encouraged, private cars are developed orderly, subways and clean fuel vehicles are developed greatly, then the total energy consumption in transportation sector will reach 183PJ, with 139PJ gasoline, which are 16. 9% and 22% lower than those in the "0" mode. In the field of vehicle emission reduction, if I/M network is set up in the year 2006, , old vehicle scrapage is encouraged, and increasing the proportion of CNG and LPG vehicles simultaneously, then the emissions of CO, VOC, NOx and PM will reach 113. 9, 9. 5, 9. 4 and 0. 25 million tons, which are 24. 8%, 18. 1%, 22.3% and 21. 8% lower than those in the BAU mode. Therefore, under the increasing shortage of energy supply, developing LPG taxis and CNG buses are quite significant in releasing the energy supply pressure in Shanghai.更多还原