【作者】 贾传亮； 池宏； 孙颖； 李桂君；

【Author】 JIA Chuan-liang~1 CHI Hong~2 SUN Ying~2 Li Gui-jun~1 (1.School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;2.Institute of Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China)

【机构】 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院； 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所；

【摘要】 本文分析了突发事件应急处置的机理,并针对应急处置过程中主要参量变化的定性模拟问题,采用定性因果推理和 QSIM 算法,根据应急管理系统中各个重要环节与相关因素的作用关系,设定了定性模拟的约束和规则。经示例验证本文所提出的方法能够较好地解决应急管理系统的定性模拟问题,所得结果符合实际情况,对实际工作具有指导和借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the mechanism of emergency disposition is analyzed.Aiming at analyzing the change of the main parameters in the emergency disposition process,we apply the qualitative consequence and QSIM algorithm to the qualitative simulation of emergency disposition.And according to the action between the correlative factors in e- mergency management system,the constraints and regulations of qualitative simulation are framed.Known from the test of the numerical example,the method that we propose can solve the qualitative simulation problem of emergen- cy management.The result from the example accords with practice,and it has meaning for actual work.更多还原