【作者】 王书平； 李金山； 李建平； 陈建明；

【Author】 WANG Shu-ping~1 LI Jin-shan~1 LI Jian-ping~2 CHEN Jian-ming~2 (1.School of Information,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;2.Institute of Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China)

【机构】 中国人民大学信息学院； 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所；

【摘要】 战争是引起石油价格剧烈波动的非市场因素之一。本文提出一种ARIMA-GARCH 分阶段干预模型来分析战争的各个阶段对油价的影响,以避免对战争不同阶段要赋予不同权值。运用此模型对四场战争进行实证分析,分析表明战争的不同阶段及其突发性对石油价格的影响具有显著差异,而且战争对油价影响有一种弱化趋势。最后在实证分析的基础上总结出战争对油价的主要影响规律,为国家能源政策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The war is one of non-market factors that arise oil price violent fluctuating.This paper proposes anARIMA-GARCH grading intervening model to analyze the effect of war’s various stages on oil price,to avoid giv-ing different weighted-value to each stage of war.We use the model to analyze four wars empirically,which showsthat the influence of different stages of war on oil price has distinct difference as well as war’s breaking out.Moreo-ver,war’s effect on oil price has a weakening trend.At last,we summarize some main principles that war influ-ences oil price based on previous empirical analysis,and give some references for state energy policy.更多还原