【作者】 王学萌； 郝永红； 黄登宇；

【Author】 WANG Xue-meng , HAO Yong-hong, HUAN Deng-yu (The Institute of Integrated Survey on Agriculture Resources, Academy of Agriculture Science of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030006 , China; School of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006 ,China; School of Life Science and Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006 , China)

【机构】 山西省农科院农业资源考察所； 山西大学环境与资源学院； 山西大学生命科学与技术学院；

【摘要】 本文在研究人口系统灰色特征,分析如何合理应用灰色系统方法进行人口预测的基础上,通过对我国人口、男性人口、女性人口、城镇人口和农村人口的实证演算,得出如下结论:2010年我国人口将增至13.47亿,其中男性人口为6.92亿,占总人口的51.37%,女性人口为6.55亿,占总人口的48.63%;城镇人口增至6.91亿,农村人口将减少到6.92亿,届时我国农村和城镇人口将首次持平。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the base of study on grey system characteristics of population system, it was analyzed that how to use grey system method in predicting population. And the conclusions were gotten through predicting China’s population, male population, female population, urban population and rural population: China’s population will reach 13. 47 hundred million, male population will reach 6. 92 hundred million, female population will reach 6. 55 hundred million, urban residents will have 6.92 hundred million and rural settlements will be 6.92 hundred million. At that time urban population will be nearly balance with rural population.更多还原