【作者】 陈惠明； 王明； 杨硕媛； 顾本文； 胡坚； 杨壁愫； 邓建华； 李应金；

【机构】 云南省烟草科学研究所； 云南省农业气象中心； 云南省烟草红塔区公司；

【摘要】 据1994-2001年的有关调查资料,用数学方程式来模拟烤烟赤星病发生情况,对2001年玉溪红塔区烤烟赤星病病情指数的趋势值进行误差分析,通过验证模型的准确率高,可适用于滇中烟区的烟草赤星病流行预测;试做2002年赤星病病情指数的发生趋势预测,为烤烟生产的综合防治工作服务。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the related data in the period of 1994-2001, the tendency forecasting models by mathematical prediction were used to predict the disease indexes of tobacco brown spot [Alternaria alternata (Fries) Kissler] in Hongta area of Yuxi in 2001, and the errors of results were analyzed. The models were testified to be rather accurate and could be used in prediction of tobacco brown spot in the Yunnan mid-range tobacco growing area. The tendency of this disease indexes is also forecasted in 2002, and the research results could provide the services for the comprehensive prevention and control of plant diseases in tobacco production.更多还原