【作者】 项静恬； 陈国珍； 刘海波； 赵振国；

【Author】 Xiang Jingtian (Institute of Applied Mathematics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing ,100080)Chen Guozhen Liu Haibo Zhao Zhenguo (National Climate Center, Beijing ,100081)

【机构】 中国科学院应用数学研究所； 国家气候中心；

【摘要】 本文根据气候预测的特点,提供了以误差平方和为风险函数,以正权综合为模式的多途径气候预测决策方案。不仅从理论上能保证几种正权方法的优性,还提供了递归技巧,进一步提高了正权综合的预测精度。对1998年汛期降水预测所做的综合决策表明,该方法具有较好的综合决策能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the synthetic decision plan of manifold climate forecasts is prese ted. The risk function of decision making is the sun of error squares, and its model is the synthesis of positive weights. This plan not only discusses the advantages of some positive weight methods in theory, but also provides the recurrent skill and enhances the forecasting precision of the synthesis of positive weights. This method has been proved to have quite good synthetic decision ability through the synthetic decision making of the forecasts of the precipitation in the flood season in this year.更多还原