【作者】 孙广明； 张素青；

【Author】 Sun Guangming Zhang Suqing(Tianjin Aquatic Institute Tianjm 300221)

【机构】 天津市水产研究所；

【摘要】 应用Gm(1,1)灰色预测模型,对天津市1985～1990年6年海水养殖总产量、精养总产量、总面积和精养亩产的数据,建立起不同的时间序列段Gm(1,1)模型组,借助发展系数a,灰作用量u计算出发展递增率和发展灰数的测度m(A),并对海水养殖生产发展势态及存在问题进行分析,以此为依据,提出今后水产生产发展对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The gray models of different periods (from 1985 to 1990) to the total output of marine culture, the total output of intensive culture, the output of a unit of area in intensive culture and total marine culture area of Tianjin coast are established. The increaseing rate and the measuring value of the developing gray figures, m( A) are calculated with the aid of the developing coefficient (a) and the quantity of gray action (u) of gray system model Gm(1, 1). The situation and problems of developing marine culture are analysed and some countermeasures on developing aquaculture in future are proposed.更多还原