【作者】 王国珍； 樊仲庆； 麻冬梅； 张小波； 郭惠萍；

【Author】 WANG Guozhen~1, FAN Zhongqing~1, MA Dongmei~1, ZHANG Xiaobo~2, GUO Huiping~3 (1 NingXia Agriculture and Forest Academy Plant Protecting Institution, Yinchuan 750002, China;2 NingXia Agriculture and Forest Academy LuHua Experimental Farm, Yinchuan 750022, China; 3 The Grape Company of the XiXia King, Yongning 750105, China)

【机构】 宁夏农林科学院植物保护研究所； 宁夏农林科学院芦花台园林试验场； 西夏王葡萄公司；

【摘要】 通过2001～2003年贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄霜霉病的系统调查,初步明确了该地区葡萄霜霉病的田间消长规律,对影响该病流行的相关气象因子进行逐步回归分析,组建了贺兰山东麓葡萄霜霉病流行的预测模型,并用历史数据对该模型进行检验,其预测7d病情指数的准确度为79.46%;用该模型预测2003年的病情指数,其预测7d病情指数的准确度为87.73%。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the systematic investigation on grape downy mildew disease in the east of Helan Mountain from 2001～2003, the epidemic tendency of the disease was preliminarily studied. By stepwise repression analysis, the weather factors that were related to the epidemical disease were selected. The regression model for predicting the epidemical disease of grape downy mildew was set up in the east of Helan mountain. The model was examined using the disease indexes of 2001～2003 and the relative factors. The results showed that the accuracy of prediction for 7 days was 79.46%; Based on the data of the relative factors, the model was used to predict the disease index in 2003 and the result showed that the accuracy of prediction for 7 days was 87.73%.更多还原