【作者】 马欣； 梁瑞； 俞树荣；

【Author】 MA Xin LIANG Rui YU Shu - rong (School of petrochemical Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050)

【机构】 兰州理工大学石油化工学院；

【摘要】 针对管道风险因素的不确定性,结合模糊数学进行敏感性模糊分析。由于概率分析法需要足够多的统计信息,这在工程实际的评价研究中是难以做到的,一般情况是若干位专家根据自身的经验给出风险因素变化的概率。但是人们主观上对于不确定因素变动随机性的概率点估计是不确定和不完全可靠的,而对概率的区间估计却是比较稳定和可靠的。因此,在不确定因素的变动分析中,采用模糊统计的形式。本文方法简便实用,得到的结果有更高的可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Introduced the Probabilistic Analysis Method, aimed for uncertified risk factors of pipeline failure , analyzed the fuzzy sensitivity incorporating fuzzy maths. Probabilistic Analysis Method will need e nough statistic information. It is difficult to do that. Generally, the probability will be given in according to experience of several experts. The subjective point estimate of probability is trustless but the interzone estimate of probability is relatively trusted. So this paper introduced fuzzy statistic method instead of the probability method.更多还原