【作者】 王鹤龄； 邓振镛； 王润元； 蒲金涌； 赵鸿；

【Author】 WANG He-Ling1 WANG Run-Yuan1 PU Jin-Yong2 DENG Zhen-Yong1 (1Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA ,Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, Key Laboatory of Arid Climate Change, CMA,Gansu, Lanzhou 730020,China;2Agrometeorological Experimental Station of Tianshui, Gansu,Tianshui 741020 China)

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化重点开放实验室； 甘肃省天水农业气象试验站；

【摘要】 全球性的气候变暖极大地影响了农作物生长和农业种植结构。为探讨气候变暖对越冬作物种植的影响,本文运用甘肃省冬小麦和冬油菜物候观测和统计年鉴资料,应用数理统计方法研究表明,冬小麦对气候变暖的响应主要表征为全生育期与越冬期的缩短,返青期与收获期提前;增温使越冬～起身、乳熟～成熟缩短,而使起身～拔节、孕穗～抽穗、开花～乳熟延长。冬油菜对气候变暖的响应表现为冬前生长发育的物候期普遍推后,而冬前生长天数并没有明显变化;翌年返青后的物候期普遍提前,越冬～返青、抽薹～初花和整个生育期缩短,返青～现蕾、终花～成熟则延长。由于气候变暖导致冬油菜气候产量有所增加,而冬小麦气候产量则下降。陇中冬小麦种植面积迅速扩大、陇东南冬小麦种植面积减少,而全省冬油菜种植面积逐年增加。冬小麦适宜种植区北界20世纪90年代比60年代向西北扩展100～200km,适宜种植区的海拔比过去也升高了300～400m。冬油菜种植带向北扩展约100km,种植海拔高度向上提高了100～200m。更多还原

【Abstract】 The structure of agricultural planting has been influenced by global climate warming,causing a lot of changes in the planting area and output of winter crops.The study based on ground parallel observation data and yearbook data showed that since 1981.The result show that,the whole growth and over-wintering periods of winter wheat was shortened in Gansu Province, the turning green dates and harvesting dates went ahead,Climate warming made the dates of turning green, jointing,flowering and maturing gone ahead,the days from flowering to milk-maturing prolonged,and the days from milk-maturing to maturing shortened. The date before over-wintering periods of winter rape gone ahead, but the days from its over-wintering date to turning green date didn’t have distinct change. the days from return green date to budding date and the end flowering date to maturing date were prolonged,and the days from over-wintering date to return green date and whole stages were shortened. the yield improved to winter rape and had a definite negative effect on the winter wheat yield under climate warming.the planting winter wheat area was extended about 100～200km northwards,300～400m high above sea level;the planting winter rape area was extended about 100 km northwards,100～200m high above sea level.更多还原