【作者】 钟利华； 李勇； 叶殿秀； 张强； 况雪源； 张宇平；

【Author】 Zhong Lihua1, Li Yong1, Ye Dianxiu2, Zhang Qiang2, Kuang Xueyuan3, Zhang Yuping4 (1. Guangxi meteorological science and technology service center, Nanning 530022; 2. National climate center, Beijing 100081; 3. Guangxi climate center, Nanning 530022; 4. Guangxi electric dispatching and communication centre, Nanning 530023)

【机构】 广西区气象科技服务中心； 国家气候中心； 广西区气候中心； 广西区电力调度通信中心；

【摘要】 针对电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响的特点,为综合衡量气象因素对广西电力负荷的影响,引入了气象学指数——有效温度,分析了4～10月气温、相对湿度、风及有效气温对电力负荷的影响。结果表明:气温与电力负荷呈显著的正相关关系,气温是影响电力负荷的主要因子;夏季以气温和风速、气温和湿度组合的变化对负荷的影响较大,风速从静风到有风时,负荷明显的减少,但当超过一定的温度时,风速越大负荷反而增加;6～9月,负荷随着气温和有效温度的升高呈线性增加;在春夏、夏秋季过渡季节,负荷并不完全随着气温的升高而增加,在气温不是太高的阶段,湿度增大时,负荷有下降的趋势,当超过一定的温度时,负荷随气温和有效温度的升高而增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 The meteorological index--effective temperature (ET) is introduced to evaluate the impact of various meteorological factors on electrical load in Guangxi based on that the latter is heavily influenced by the former. Analysis on the effect of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and ET on the electrical load from Aril to October indicate that it is significantly positive correlated between air temperature and electrical load, which implies the air temperature is the main factor responsible for the variation of electrical load. Furthermore, in summer, the change of the combination of air temperature and wind speed as well as that of air temperature and relative humidity has larger impact on the electrical load. As the wind speed strengthened from nearly aerostatic to windiness, the load will remarkably decreased. But if the temperature exceed in a certain value, the load would be increased with the rise of wind speed. The electrical load is linearly increased with the air temperature or the ET from June to September; whereas, The load is not fully increased with the ascending of temperature in the transition season of Spring, Summer and Autumn, in the stage of the temperature is not too high, the load has a downward trend with the increasing of humidity, when more than a certain temperature, the load is increased with the ascending of air temperature and effective temperature.更多还原