【作者】 曲金华； 王冀； 孙力； 江志红；

【Author】 WangJi1Qu Jinhua2 SunLi2 Jiang Zhihong2 (1 Nanjing University of Information Science & technology Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,210044)(2 Jilin meteorological office 130062 )

【机构】 吉林省气象局； 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院；

【摘要】 采用政府间气候变化委员会资料中心的模式预测结果(IPCC-AR4),分析了SRESA1B、A2、B1排放情景下中国东北地区气候和水资源变化的主要特征。研究表明:东北地区气温和降水均随时间呈上升趋势,气温的上升趋势非常明显,降水增加趋势的很弱。气温和降水在东北地区基本上保持一致的增加或减少的变化趋势。未来水资源的变化情况表明,蒸发量的变化最明显,在A2情景下增加了12.3~14.4%,其次是地表径流,在A2情景下减少了4~4.7%,而浅层和深层含水量虽然也是呈减少趋势,但是变化相对较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 By adopting IPCC-AR4 models results ,analysis the primary characteristic of climate and Utilizable Precipitation change in Northeast China under A1b,A2,B1 emissions scenarios. The results shows that the variation tendency of temperature and precipitation in Northeast increasing ,the variation tendency of temperature are more obviously. The spatial distribution temperature and precipitation were the same increasing and decreasing tendency. The future Utilizable Precipitation change shows that the variation of Surface potential evaporation are the most obvious ,under A2 scenarios, increasing 12.3~14.4% the next is surface runoff, decreasing 4~ 4.7%,0-10cm soil moisture content and 10 - 200cm soil moisture content are decreasing unobvious.更多还原