【作者】 王光谦； 傅旭东； 李铁建； 张建新； 刘帆； 高洁；

【Author】 Guangqian Wang, Xudong Fu, Tiejian Li, Jianxin Zhang, Fan Liu, and Jie Gao (State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

【机构】 清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 四川"5.12"汶川大地震形成的34个主要堰塞湖,超过半数处于中危以上,需要及时开展溃决风险评估和应急除险措施。应用数字流域模型和水动力学模型,在资料匮乏的条件下,快速预报了典型堰塞湖的来流入库过程和溃口发展过程,模拟了不同应急预案条件下的洪水传播过程,为堰塞湖溃决风险评估和应急处置提供了有效依据。将来需要进一步建立集来流预报、泄流溃决、洪水淹没及优化措施分析为一体的完整模型体系,应对基本数据匮乏条件下的应急预警预报和优化决策需求。更多还原

【Abstract】 The 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake triggered huge landslides that blocked rivers and created more than 34 quake lakes including the Tangjiashan one on the Jianjiang River in Beichuan County. More than 17 quake lakes were in moderately dangerous situations and needed to be tackled in emergency for hazards relief. The Digital Watershed Model (DWM) and hydrodynamic models developed at Tsinghua University were adopted for quickly forecasting the incoming flow discharge and dam-breach processes of the Tangjiashan Quake Lake. Dam break scenarios of typical quake lakes were also simulated for outburst flood routing in downstream rivers and the simulation results were used for the design of emergency treatment plans. To meet the need of emergency forecasting and treatment of quake lakes in areas with limited data, it is desirable to set up an integrated modeling system that functions as hydrological forecasting, dam breach analysis, inundation analysis, and optimal decision of engineering measures.更多还原