【作者】 辛渝； 陈洪武； 李元鹏； 张新； 卢戈； 博力健；

【Author】 XIN Yu1, CHEN Hongwu1, LI Yuanpeng1, ZHANG Xin2, LU Ge2 1 Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi,Xinjiang China; 830002 2 Meteorological Bureau of Bortala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture, Bole, Xinjiang 833400

【机构】 新疆气象局气候中心； 新疆博州气象局；

【摘要】 采用最优插值、EOF、Morlet小波与统计t检验相结合以及趋势系数等方法分析了北疆34个气象站1961—2006年逐日最高气温资料。结果表明:(1)北疆高温天气的分布主要受高度分带性控制,其次是纬度分带性控制,主要出现在北疆盆地与天山北坡经济带中;(2)北疆高温天气高发区年高温日数与高温强度变化趋势不显著,而次发区以及高发区的边缘地区年高温日数或极端最高温度有显著增加趋势,高温天气发生的范围有扩大化趋势;(3)天山北坡经济带年平均高温日数呈不显著的增加趋势,高温天气的发生呈提前趋势。按月份计,6月增加显著;按旬计,5月上、中旬以及6月下旬增加显著。(4)北疆区域年平均高温日数具有22a左右、10-11a以及5-6a的周期,且区域年平均高温日数异常多寡年以及年高温日数的突变时间大多在太阳黑子数的“峰谷值”附近。(5)按近期小波变化得到的周期估计,北疆2010(±1)—2014(±1)年夏半年高温天气略少。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of daily extreme high temperature from 34 meteorological observatories over North Xinjiang, the results were revealed as fellows by the methods of the optimum interpolation, EOF, the combination of Morlet wavelet transform and statistical t-validation, including the linear trend analysis etc: (1) The distribution of scorching weather is influenced mainly by the location of altitude and latitude secondly so that they mostly take place in the basin and the economic zone along the Tianshan Mountains’ north slopes. (2) There are no significant change trend in the regional annual mean frequencies and intensity of scorching weather in those of regular places. However, there are remarkable lifting trend in the less regular places and the edge of the regular places, so there appears an outstanding spreading trend in area in North Xinjiang. (3) In the economical zone along the Tianshan Mountains’ North slopes, although there appears non-significant trend in the regional annual mean frequencies, there is a striking ascend in June by calculating monthly trend, in the first and second ten days of May and the third ten days of June byevery ten days’ trend. The scorching weather happens ahead here. (4) The regional annual mean frequencies mainly possess the periodicity of 22a, 10-11a and 5-6a. The abnormal regional yearly mean frequencies of scorching weather and the time of its abrupt change mostly happened near the value of the peak or valley of the sunspots number. (5) By the estimation of the latest period obtained from the wavelet transformation, that there may be less scorching weather in the period of 2010(±1)—2014(±1) in North Xinjiang.更多还原