【作者】 刘艳群； 陈创买； 郑勇；

【机构】 韶关市气象局； 中山大学大气科学系；

【摘要】 采用珠江流域1954-2003年51站的月降水资料,利用主分量、趋势分析、突变分析、功率谱方法,研究珠江流域年降水的时空分布特征。分析结果表明:珠江流域年平均降水量在700-2400㎜之间,降水及标准差分布大致都是从东向西减小。珠江流域年降水存在5种主要分布型态:全区涝(旱)型、南涝(旱)北旱(涝)型、东涝(旱)西旱(涝)型、东西涝(旱)中部旱(涝)型、东西向旱涝呈带状分布,其中全区性涝(旱)和南旱(涝)北涝(旱)的分布型态较多,占总年数的70%。珠江流域年降水在1970年以前全区偏旱,1971-1980年间偏涝,1981-1991年间偏旱,1992年以后偏涝。珠江流域年降水场第1、4、5主分量均有突变现象;第2主分量存在准2年的显著周期,第3主分量存在准3年和17年的显著周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the rainfall of 51 station in the Pearl River basin during 1954-2003,Principal component analysis method and other statistical methods were applied to research the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of annual rainfall.The results of analyses reveal:in the Pearl River basin,there is different precipitation varying from 600mm to 2400mm on average,and the precipitation and the standard deviation distribution is decrease gradually from east to west on the whole.The rainfall distribution of the Pearl River basin has five main types:I-type:the waterlogging(drought) in the whole region,II-type:the waterlogging(drought) in north and drought(waterlogging) in south,III-type:the waterlogging(drought) in east and drought(waterlogging) in west,IV-type:the watterlogging(drought) in center and drought(waterlogging) in east and west,V-type:the waterlogging(drought) taking on zonal distribution in east-west.The types of the waterlogging(drought) in the whole region and waterlogging(drought) in north and drought(waterlogging) in south are appear much than other,it have 70% in total.rainfall in Pearl River basin region were mainly dry before 1970 and in 1981-1991,and were mainly wet in 1971-1980 and after 1992.M-K method analysis exposes that obvious abrupt points are present in all distribution forms,except type II and type III.From power spectrum analysis,the second principle components have periods of 2 years,and the third has periods of 3 years and 17 years.更多还原