【作者】 邓振镛； 王鹤龄； 王润元； 张宇飞； 刘德祥； 徐金芳； 张谋草；

【Author】 DENG Zhen-yong1 WANG He-ling1 WANG Run-yuan1 ZHANG Yu-fei2 LIU De-xiang2 XU Jing fang2 ZHANG Mu-cao3 1 Institute of AridMeteorology,CMA,Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,Lanzhou 730020,China;2Lanzhou Central Meteorology Observatory,Lanzhou Gansu 730020,China;3The Agrometeorological Experiment Station of Xifeng,Xifeng,Gansu745000,China)

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省(中国气象局)干旱气候变化与减灾重点(开放)实验室； 兰州中心气象台； 甘肃省西峰农业气象试验站；

【摘要】 本文揭示了气候持续变暖是祁连山北坡现代气候变化的基本特征。1986年是气候发生明显转折的年份,1987～2003年的平均气温比1961～1986年升高0.8℃,≧0℃积温和≧10℃积温增加142℃和131℃,呈线性上升趋势;降水量平均增加7.5mm,呈曲线缓慢增多趋势。由于气候变暖,使农作物适生种植区和作物种植上限高度不同程度的提高,其中喜热棉花、喜温作物玉米和喜凉作物甘蓝型油菜分别提高100m左右、150m左右和200m左右,种植面积迅速扩大,呈直线上升趋势。依据农业气候生态资源垂直分布特征和15种主要作物气候生态适生种植区以及农林牧业结构布局特点,采用气候生态相似原理,将祁连山北坡大体分为5个农林牧业气候生态区,建议性提出各区农林牧业结构的比重以及夏粮、秋粮、经济作物和饲草的种植比例,并阐明了各区未来主要发展方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The text opening out the continuance climate warming is the essence characteristic of northern of Qilian mountains.the climate take place evidence transition in 1986,the average temperature increase 0.8℃,≧0℃ and ≧10℃ accumulate temperature hoist 142℃ and 131℃;precipitation increased 7.5mm.for the climate warming,the crops adaptability planting section and planting altitude heighten gradually,cotton\maize and rapes heighten 100m\150m and 200m in turn,planting area enlarge rapid,according as perpendicularity distributing characteristic of agriculture climate zoology resource and 15 mostly crops adaptability planting section and the structure distribution characteristic of Agriculture forest stockbreeding.Adoption the climate zoology similitude principium,compartmentalize the five Agriculture forest stockbreeding climate zoology section in northern of Qilian mountains,suggesting that the specific gravity of Agriculture forest stockbreeding,the planting inverse proportion of summer grain crops\autumn grain crops\economy crops and forage grass.Elucidated the mostly develop orientation in the future.更多还原