【作者】 张德山； 刘燕； 丁德平； 张姝丽； 穆启占； 王燕； 宛公展；

【Author】 Zhang Deshan,Liu Yan,Ding Deping,Zhang Shuli,Mu Qizhan (Beijing Professional Weather Service Observatory,Beijing,100089)Wang Yan (Hospital of Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin,,300100)Wan Gongzhan (Tianjin Meteorological Science Academe,Tianjin,300074)

【机构】 北京市专业气象台； 天津医科大学总医院； 天津市气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 本文根据京津地区儿童呼吸系三种常见疾病(感冒、气管炎、肺炎)发病与环境气象条件的可能联系,发现气温、气温日较差、风速等气象要素与疾病发病率有一定的相关关系。依此,采用岭回归技术,建立了医疗气象预报模式。并开发了每日医疗气象滚动预报软件平台,可用于日常业务预报值班。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article discloses the certain correlation between the incidence of respiratory diseases and the weather conditions such as temperature,temperature daily range,and wind speed,etc,on the basis of possible relationships between the three kinds of familiar respiratory diseases of children(cold、tracheitis、pneumonia)in Beijing and Tianjin area.Ridge regression technique is adopted to build up the Medical-Meteorological forecast model.A computer software for daily Medical-Meteorological forecast has been made and can be used for daily operation.更多还原