【作者】 张海洋； 王云峰； 王雨顺；

【Author】 Zhanghaiyang Wangyunfeng (Institute of Meteorology, PLA Univ, of Sci. & Tech., Nanjing 211101)

【机构】 解放军理工大学； 南京师范大学；

【摘要】 由于洋面上常规观测资料严重不足,使得客观分析的结果难以准确地描写初始台风的热力结构和环流特征,这是造成台风数值预报误差较大的重要原因。BDA方案可以很好的改善台风预报强度和初始场,加入ATOVS卫星资料再进行同化可使台风初始位置和台风路径预报有所改善,对台风的强度预报也有调整。本文采用这种综合bogus资料和ATOVS资料的四维变分同化方法对0414号云娜台风进行了数值模拟。试验结果表明:此方法对台风强度和路径预报都有一定改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 The serious shortness of routine observation data over ocean makes the thermodynamic and circumfluent structures of the initial typhoon difficult to be accurately described by the objective analysis results. And it is an important reason causing bigger errors of the typhoon numerical forecasting. BDA scheme can well improve the intensity and initial field in typhoon forecasting. Assimilation with atovs satellite data can improve the forecasting initial position and track of typhoon,and also can adjust forecasting of typhon intensity. The paper adopts four-dimensional variational assimilation scheme in which the bogus data and atovs data are assimilated to numerically simulate the No.0414 typhoon Rananim. The result shows that the method can improve both typhoon intensity and track forecasting to a certainty.更多还原