【作者】 廖胜石； 罗建英； 梁岱云； 王庆国；

【Author】 Liao Shengshi 1 Luo Jianying 2 Liang Daiyun1 Wang Qingguo1 (1. Nanning Meteorological Office, Nanning 530022;2. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory)

【机构】 广西南宁市气象局； 广西区气象台；

【摘要】 从广西典型暴雨形势下,暴雨落区的角度出发,利用MM5模式对2005年5月9日一次广西前汛期暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。模式成功地再现了这次暴雨过程,揭示了发生在典型暴雨形势下的这次暴雨过程落区偏南的原因。结果表明:在暴雨过程期间低空急流轴在广西南部的沿海地区维持,一直没有北抬,是造成强降水远离850hPa切变线发生的关键原因。暴雨区上空的高低空急流配合,产生了强烈的水汽和质量辐合,造成不稳定能量和垂直运动在广西南、北部的不均匀分布,从而导致强降水的不均匀分布。另外,数值模式输出的云水和雨水的强度及所处的位置,可以为降水落区预报提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The MM5 model is used to simulate the heavy rain process during the first rainy season of Guangxi on 8-9 May 2005. Based on the reliable output of the MM5 model, the reasons that the heavy rain fell on the south side of Guangxi but not the north side are found. The results indicate that the axis of the LLJ kept on staying in the south of Guangxi without moving to the north is the main reason. The event is in close relationship with the upper jet and lower jet. The LLJ brings on the intensive ascending motion, the saturated moisture and the high instability energy in the south of Guangxi .And these conditions are very favorable to the generation and development of the heavy rain in the south of Guangxi. It is found that the cloud water and rain water are the possible signals for the heavy rain forecasting.更多还原