【作者】 余贞寿； 周功铤； 赵放； 冀春晓；

【Author】 Yu Zhenshou1 Zhou Gongting1 Zhao Fang1 Ji Chunxiao2 (1, Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau,Wenzhou,325003) (2, Meteorological science Research Institute of Zhejiang province,Hangzhou,310017)

【机构】 浙江省温州市气象局； 浙江省气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 本文利用美国CAPS的非静力高分辨率区域预报模式ARPS对0414号台风“云娜”进行数值模拟,模拟结果表明ARPS较好模拟台风“云娜”的移动路径及台风大暴雨。并着重讨论新一代天气雷达资料对台风“云娜”数值模拟的影响,通过对雷达资料进模式与没有雷达资料进模式对比模拟试验结果分析表明:雷达资料进模式,对中高层的风场调整,改进对台风细微结构特征描述,加大近台风中心南侧的西风分量和近台风中心西侧的北风分量,从而改进云娜台风登陆后西行移动路径预报;对扰动温度、雨水混合率、云水混合率及水汽混合率场等调整,改善模式初始场台风中高层成雨条件,对台风降水预报,尤其暴雨的落区、降水分布及其随时间变化的预报有较大改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 The typhoon RANANIM (0414) was simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) of CAPS. The typhoon RANANIM prediction have generally improved by ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data. The numerical experiments with or without using radar data shown that the radar radial velocity data assimilated to model initial fields by ADAS could change the wind field at mid-high levels of troposphere, fine characters of TC was drawn into the initial wind, the x-component wind speed of southern of TC was increased, meanwhile, the y-component wind speed of western of TC was also increased. These lead to improved in the forecasting of TC tracks after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio, temperature, , cloud water mixing ratio and rain water mixing ratio also were improved by using radar reflectivity data. The model’s initial reaction to the introduction of hydrometeors would be to increase. Previous studies have shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, It could be greatly improved in TC rainfall, specially, heavy rainstorm of TC , as well as its distribution and variety with time.更多还原