【作者】 严小冬；

【Author】 Yan Xiao-dong (Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment Climate, Guiyang, 550002,China)

【机构】 贵州省山地环境气候研究所；

【摘要】 基于DERF模式输出500hPa位势高度场,贵州冬季降水和气温历史资料,利用Downscaling法,研究该释用方法对贵州冬季降水和气温预报技巧和预测效果。结果表明,该方法从动力与统计相结合的角度,给出季尺度大气环流与局地降水、气温之间的关系,结果有清楚的动力学背景和天气学意义;20年回算以及2年回报试验证明了该关系的合理性;对贵州冬季降水的预测率约70%,而对气温的预测率为65%左右;在极端异常年,该方法对降水的预测率变幅不大,而对气温的预测效果影响极大。最后利用该方法对2005年贵州冬季降水和气温趋势进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on 500hPa height field from DERF output, winter rainfall and temperature over Guizhou, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (500hPa), the prediction skills and effects of winter precipitation and temperature were researched by using Downscaling method. The results show that: First, from the point of statistical-dynamical downscaling, the relationship between season-scale general circulation and regional rainfall or temperature was obtained, which has obvious dynamical background and weather significant. Second, 20 years recounted and 2 years reforecast show that the relationship is reasonable. Third, about 70 percent to the prediction rate of precipitation of Guizhou winter, and the prediction rate to the temperature is about 65 percent. At the same time, during the long-term extremely unusual, the prediction rate of precipitation waves small, but the prediction result influence on the temperature is great. According to this method, precipitation and temperature trend in winter of Guizhou of 2005 was prospected finally.更多还原