节点文献
北京市“04.7.10”强降水过程的超级集合预报试验
A Supper Ensemble Mesoscale Prediction Experiment of Beijing “10 Jul.2004” Heavy Rainfall event
【作者】 陈静; 矫梅燕; 薛纪善; 何光碧; 李川; 龚建东;
【Author】 Chen Jing1), Jiao Meiyan2) Xue Jishang3)He Guangbi1), Li Chuan1) , Gong Jiandong2) 1). Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA,Chengdu,610071) 2). National Meteorological Center, CMA, Beijing,100081 3).Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Bejing 100081)
【机构】 国家气象局成都高原气象研究所; 国家气象中心; 中国气象科学研究院; 国气象局成都高原气象研究所;
【摘要】 本文充分考虑模式非绝热物理过程和模式初值对北京市夏季暴雨数值预报的不确定性影响,利用PSU/NCAR非静力MM5中尺度模式,应用适合于中尺度暴雨的初值扰动方法--异物理模态法,设计了具有8个集合成员的多初值多物理的超级集合预报试验方案,并对2004年7月10日的北京暴雨进行了超级集合预报试验,结果表明由多物理过程和异物理模态初值构造的超级集合预报系统能较好地反应北京市强降水预报的不确定性因素,给出强降水的发生信号,超级集合预报较单一模式和多物理模式扰动集合预报更为优越,可以弥补单一模式预报不确定性的缺陷,是北京市奥运会期间极有发展前途的新型中尺度灾害预报技术。
【Abstract】 Considering the impact of physics and initial conditions errors of numerical model on heavy rainfall in monsoon season in Beijing, a supper ensemble prediction experiment , based on the PSU/NCAR non-hydrodynamic Mesoscale Model (MM5) was made on a severe weather occurred in 10 July 2004 in Beijing. The supper ensemble prediction scheme ,consisting of 8 ensemble members. The model perturbation method was by use of different Convective Parameterization Schemes and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes , and the initial condition perturbation method is the Different Physical Mode Method (DPMM). The results show the Supper ensemble predictions can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavy rainfall in Beijing, providing the strong signal of heavy rainfall events.The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable, and supper ensemble predictions can offset its limitation. The Supper ensemble predictions were of more advantages than model or initial perturbation method and can provide more useful guidance and have higher application value. The Supper ensemble predictions being a encourage method in the 2008 lympic game in Beijing
【Key words】 Beijing; heavy rainfall in monsoon season; supper ensemble prediction;
- 【会议录名称】 中国气象学会2005年年会论文集
- 【会议名称】中国气象学会2005年年会
- 【会议时间】2005-10
- 【会议地点】中国苏州
- 【分类号】P457.6
- 【主办单位】中国气象学会