【作者】 谢炯光； 纪忠萍；

【Author】 Xie Jiongguang, Ji Zhongping(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080)

【机构】 广州中心气象台；

【摘要】 <正> 1 引言本文利用合成分析和相关统计方法,就南海西南季风爆发早晚的500 hPa环流异常特征,以及爆发早晚与汛期降水趋势、热带气旋活动等重要天气的可能关联进行研究。研究结果发现,南海西南季风爆发的对应旬内,广东的中、西南部都会出现一次暴雨或大暴雨的降水过程。南海西南季风爆发早,广东前汛期雨量以正常偏少为主、后汛期雨量以偏多为主、影响广东热带更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, it is analyzed that the influence of the onset time of South China Sea (SCS) southeast monsoon upon the rainfall trend in the first and second flood season, and the tropical cyclones (included the first and the final, the total numbers)that landed in the Guangdong. It was found that if the onset of monsoon was earlier, there were less rainfall in the first flood season , more rainfall and tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong in the second flood season. It was also analyzed that the relationships between the onset time of SCS southeast monsoon and the Northwest Pacific SST, 500 hPa circle fields in Dec. - Feb. , and El Nino, and founded some regularity that forecasts the onset of SCS southeast monsoon, and it can be used in short-range climate operational forecast.更多还原