【作者】 杨艳芳； 李会庆； 周英智； 刁玉涛； 房学强； 赵得利； 周立雪； 雷复华； 纪鹏；

【Author】 Yang Yan-Fang Li Hui-Qing Zhou Ying-Zhi Diao Yu-Tao Fang Xue-Qiang Zhao De-Li Ji Peng Academy of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China Corresponding author: LI Hui-qing. Institue of Basic Medcine, Shandong Academy of Medical Science, Jinan 250062, China

【机构】 山东大学公共卫生学院； 山东省医学科学院基础医学研究所； 山东省肥城市人民医院；

【摘要】 目的:分析肥城市食管癌死亡率的变化规律,为该地开展食管癌病因学研究及制定防制策略提供依据。方法:采用负二项回归分析年龄、性别、时期、出生队列与食管癌死亡的关系。结果食管癌死亡与年龄和性别有关。食管癌死亡率随着年龄组的增高而增高,每相邻两年龄组的下一年龄组食管癌死亡危险是上一年龄组的1．67倍,95％可信限为1．56～ 1．78;男性食管癌死亡危险是女性的2．38倍,95％可信限为 1．78～3．18;而时期和出生队列与食管癌死亡率的变化没有统计学意义。结论:肥城市食管癌死亡率资料分布符合负二项分布,回归分析显示该地食管癌的危险性因素在近30年中基本没有变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To prove the trend of esophageal cancer mortality during from 1970 to 2004 and to provide the evidence for etiology study and preventing strategy of esophageal cancer in Feicheng county. Method The association among mortality of esophageal cancer and age, sex, periods, birth cohorts were analysed by negative binomial regression model. Results: The results showed that the risk of esophageal cancer mortality associated with age and gender, but not related with periods and birth cohorts. The risk of esophagus cancer increased by 1.67 [95%confidence Interval 95%CI: 1.56 - 1.78] times from 40- years old group to every other five years old groups. The risk is 2.38 (95%CI:1.56 - 1.78) times higher in male than that in female. There was no significant association bwtween the risk of esophageal cancer mortality with period times or birth cohorts. Conclusion: The frequency distribution of the mortality rates of esophageal cancer was consistent with the negative binomial distribution. The results of analysis by negative binomial regression indicated that the etiology factors for esophageal cancer maybe not change in the area.更多还原