【作者】 周晖； 王玮； 钮文洁； 谢欣荣；

【Author】 Hui Zhou~1 Wei Wang~1 Wenjie Niu~1 Xinrong Xie~2 1) School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,beijing,100044 2)Qinghuangdao Electric Power Company,Qinghuangdao,Hebei Province,056003

【机构】 北京交通大学电气工程学院； 秦皇岛电力公司；

【摘要】 重点探讨了电能在城市居民用能市场占有率研究必要性,运用秦皇岛地区电力市场调查的基础数据,建立了关于城市居民在热水用能,饮水用能,取暖用能,烹饪用能项目上电能市场占有率的灰色转移概率的马尔可夫模型,并进行了下一期,及未来任一时期能源系统的分布预测,这为电力公司了解各细分能源市场中电能的前景,制定相应的管理对策提供了参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 it is very necessary to be clear about the market share that electricity accounts for the whole energy consumption of city residents’ under the circumstance of market,with the data from Qiuhuangdao electricity market investigation,Markov model with grey transformation probability matrix have been constructed on market share of residential energy consumption items such as heating,cooking,cooling etc.,we could do a distributive forecast about energy market in next term as well in an arbitrary term in future,which is valuable reference for electricity company to be realize the prospect of electricity energy in every subdivision market in order to make corresponding management strategy.更多还原