【作者】 苏蓓蓓； 许田； 何大韧；

【Author】 Beibei Su, Tian Xu and Daren He College of Physics Science and Technology. Yangzhou University. Yangzhou 225002

【机构】 扬州大学物理学院；

【摘要】 我们建议一个复杂自适应地模拟长江流域经济发展和港口贸易的动力学摸型,并且把我们对长江流域港口吞吐量的累计分布所作的实证统计研究结果作为检验模型模拟结果正确与否的主要依据。对这个模型的数值模拟显示符合长江流域港口吞吐量累计分布的实证统计研究规律可以随着时间的发展由模型自组织地产生,说明这个模型具有一定的合理性。我们认为微扰对一个系统的影响可以在一定程度上说明系统是简单还是复杂,因为对于简单系统微扰的影响只能说明或区别系统的稳定性, 只有对复杂系统的微扰才可能产生新的结构、形态。因此我们建设研究微扰对这个长江流域经济发展和港口贸易的动力学模型的影响。研究结果说明扰动可能引起港口吐量的显著增加,说明在随机扰动下(任意一个港口突然减产时).最可能的影响是其他港口借此机会扩大自己的贸易。很可能扰动正是复杂自适应贸易模型健康发展的要素之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 We suggest a complex and sell’-adaptne dynanmie model for simulating the economic development and trade between the open ports in Yangtse drainage basin,and take our empirical statistical investigation result about the accumulate distribution of the throughput of the open ports in Yangtse drainage basin as the bases for checking up the correctness of the model.The simulation of the model shows that the model can self-organize to the empirical statistical rule for the distribution of the throughput of the open ports with time developing.It indicates that the model is rather reasonable.We believe that the influence of disturbance on a system can show the system is simple or complex in certain extent since the influence of disturbance on a simple system can only state or distinguish the stability of the system,only the disturbance to a complex system may generate new structure or configuration.Therefore we suggest studying the influence of disturbance on the model.The results show that disturbance may induce obvious increase of the averaged throughput of the open ports that indicates under a random disturbance (a randomly chosen open port suddenly decrease its production) the most possible influence is that other open ports take the opportunity to enlarge their trade scale.It is very possible that the disturbance serves as an important factor in the healthy development of a complex and self-adaptive trade model.更多还原