【作者】 宋立军； 赵纯青； 石树中； 李锰；

【Author】 Song Lijun, Zhao Chunqing, Shi Shuzhong and Li Meng (Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Aotonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)

【机构】 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局；

【摘要】 通过总结新疆近年来的震害预测研究成果和震害损失评估工作的实践,给出了震后损失快速评估方法——“盲估”方法。经过实际震害损失评估结果检验,认为“盲估”结果可粗略反映新疆破坏性地震经济损失和人员伤亡情况,但在实际操作时应该考虑到一些影响“盲估”结果的具体因素。提出今后震灾评估的发展方向是建立震后趋势快速判定的计算机管理系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 By summarizing the achievements of estimating losses from future earthquake and the practice in earthquake disaster assessment in recent years, a rapid postseismic loss assessment method-"blind assessment "method is given in this paper. Compared with the real earthquake disaster loss result, it is thought that the "blind assessment" result is able to roughly reflect the conditions of the economic loss and dead-injured people caused by the destructive earthquakes in Xinjiang. But when it is uesd in practice some factors that affect " blind assessment" result should be considered. It is advanced that establishing rapid, computerized posteismic trend judgement system is the developing trend of earthquake disaster assessment in the future.更多还原