【作者】 王双绪； 张希； 江在森； 陈兵；

【Author】 Wang Shuangxu, Zhang Xu Jiang Zaisen and Chen Bing(The Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, China. Seismological Bureau, Xi’an 710054, China)

【机构】 中国地震局第二地形变监测中心；

【摘要】 以云南西部和甘青交界的祁连山—河西走廊地区地形变监测资料为依据,分别计算提取了基于区域垂直形变网的垂直剪应变率和面膨胀率以及基于断层形变测点的视应变分布等不同尺度的应变场信息。初步研究了1996年云南丽江7.0级、1986年青海门源6.4级、1990年甘肃景泰6.2级和1995年永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的区域应变场信息动态演化的阶段性特征。结合“坚固体”孕震模式,探讨了根据区域应变场信息动态演化的阶段性特征进行强震中期预测的可能性和途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the crustal deformation data of the Western Yunnan and the Qilian -Hexi corridor in the border area between Qinghai and Gansu, the varied scale strain field information of shear strain rate and areal dilation rate based on areal vertical deformation networks, together with visual strain distribution based on stations of fault deformation are computed and extracted respectively. The episodic characteristics of areal strain field information dynamic evolution in seismic process of M 7.0 Lijiang earthquake occurred in Yunnan, 1996 and M 6. 4 Menyuan earthquake occurred in Qinghai, 1986 and M 6- 2 Jingtai earthquake occurred in Gansu, 1990 and M 5- 8 Yongdeng earthquake occurred in Gansu, 1995 are studied preliminarily. Combining the seismogenic model of "solid body", the possibility and way of macro-seism medium term prediction in accordance with the episodic characteristics of areal strain field information dynamic evlution are discussed.更多还原