【作者】 韩平； 李斌； 崔永；

【Author】 Han Ping Li Bin Cui Yong (The People’s Bank of China)

【机构】 中国人民银行营业管理部；

【摘要】 本文试图求解我国 M₂/GDP 的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国 M₂/GDP 的变动路径具有 Logistic 曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国 M₂/GDP 的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M₂/GDP 的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大, 只有 M₂/GDP 偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses the dynamic growth path of M₂/GDP,appropriate money supply in China.We find that the dynamic growth path of M₂/GDP in China has the characteristic of the logistic curve,will first rise accelerate,then rising speed will decrease,finally tend to a upper limit.This paper estimated the upper limit and the inflection point of Chinese M₂/GDP growth path.We also discover that it is not inevitable that the rising of M₂/GDP means inflation pressure increasing.Only if M₂/GDP deviates dynamic growth path,money stability has been influenced.According to the above,we estimated appropriate M₂ supply quantity in 2005.We think that the central bank ought to continue to implement steady monetary policy,reasonably determines money supply quantity,and carry out financial reform and so on,to guarantee economy and money stability.更多还原