Modeling epidemic based on penna model

【作者】 贺明峰； 潘秋惠； 于柄林；

【Author】 HE Ming-feng, PAN Qiu-hui, YU Bing-lin ( Department of Applied Mathematics, Dalian University of Technology, P R China; Institute of University Students’ Innovation, Dalian University of Technology, P R China; Department of Applied Physics, Dalian University of Technology, P R China)

【机构】 大连理工大学数学系； 大连理工大学；

【摘要】 <正>A cellular automata model is developed aiming to study the epidemic on a lattice of two dimensions. The characteristics of individual including reproduction, death by inherited diseases and age are studied in the Penna model. The spreading of epidemic and the reproduction of individual are considered as cellular automata. We shall mainly discuss the influence on the number of epidemical patients by infection rate and death rate. The results show that the existence of epidemic mainly depends on the infection rate and the death rate but not the initial ratio of patients. There are two reasons for non-existent epidemic. As long as the infection rate is less than 0.3, the epidemic can not spread. On the other hand, if the infection rate and the death rate are both high, the individuals with epidemic die out and the epidemic can not spread, either. The epidemic can exist all along when the combination of infection rate and death rate are in the mid area.更多还原

【Abstract】 A cellular automata model is developed aiming to study the epidemic on a lattice of two dimensions. The characteristics of individual including reproduction, death by inherited diseases and age are studied in the Penna model. The spreading of epidemic and the reproduction of individual are considered as cellular automata. We shall mainly discuss the influence on the number of epidemical patients by infection rate and death rate. The results show that the existence of epidemic mainly depends on the infection rate and the death rate but not the initial ratio of patients. There are two reasons for non-existent epidemic. As long as the infection rate is less than 0.3, the epidemic can not spread. On the other hand, if the infection rate and the death rate are both high, the individuals with epidemic die out and the epidemic can not spread, either. The epidemic can exist all along when the combination of infection rate and death rate are in the mid area.更多还原