【作者】 秦庭荣； 陈伟炯； 张锦朋；

【Author】 Qin Tingrong, Chen Weijiong, Zhang Jinpeng(School of Merchant Marine, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135)

【机构】 上海海事大学商船学院；

【摘要】 风险可定义为在一定时期内事故发生的频率和后果损失程度的组合,风险的大小称为风险度。目前对风险度的划分一直很粗糙,造成分类不合理,特别是局部某些区域的归属问题争议很大,且在此领域还没有能找到解决的较好途径。由于损失程度和频率大小都是相对模糊的概念,在量化上存在着一定的困难;针对此模糊性,本文试图从模糊逻辑的角度分别对上述几个变量定义隶属度函数关系,构造规则表并且运用模糊逻辑规则推理,使得出的风险度大小成梯度精细下降,并且把风险度直观映射到区间上。最后对上述过程用MATLAB软件做了图像仿真模拟,分析了实验结果并且与传统方法进行了比较,探讨了此方法的优缺点和今后研究的方向。综上所述表明此方法有一定的实用性和应用性价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk is defined as the combination of the frequency and the severity of the consequence. While the segmentation of risk is so rough that it always causes some disputes, especially of some key parts. Because the severity of the consequence and the frequency is both relatively ambiguous concepts, there is certain difficulty in quantification. To solve the problem, the author defined the membership functions for the language variable above - mentioned, then defined the regular form, by using the regular reasoning of fuzzy logic, made risk classification drop in small steps, after that, mapped the risk into a visibly closed interval . Finally did the artificial simulation in MATLAB software, analyzed the experimental result, compared with the traditional method and studied the advantages, disadvantages and direction for further study. This paper presents the application and feasibility of the above - mentioned method.更多还原