【作者】 曾庆成； 杨忠振；

【Author】 Zeng Qingcheng, Yang Zhonghzhen(Transport and Logistics College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026)

【机构】 大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院；

【摘要】 “四阶段模型法”、“总量控制法”等广泛应用的规划方法是根据需求预测的结果,确定将要建设的交通设施的规模和空间位置。此类方法的主要缺点是对交通设施建设后的影响效果分析不足,对建设效果分析时只注重交通市场,而对其外部效果缺乏有效的定量分析,从而不能准确把握建设项目的整体综合效益。本研究拟在需求预测方法的基础上,提出一种新的交通规划方法——需求预测与效果分析相结合的方法。力争在规划阶段通过对交通设施所处社会系统的整体仿真,尽可能精确地分析其中的因果关系,提高交通设施规划的科学性和动态性。本文首先以干线公路为代表详细分析交通设施建设所诱发的各种效果。其次,提出新规划方法的思路,既在充分进行需求预测的基础上,进一步分析在交通市场外产生的影响效果,指出可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型将成为分析上述效果,对社会系统仿真的有效工具,同时,提出在交通规划中应用CGE模型的具体思路,包括建模方法、模型标定中应该注意的问题等。最后,结合CGE衡模型的具体结构,指出在交通规划中连接需求预测与效果评价的方法与途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Methods of "Four -Step Traffic Demand Model" and "Total Volume Control", which are currently adopted, determine the scale and location of the being built infrastructure based on the demand forecast . The main shortage of them is that in terms of impact analysis it just takes transport market into account while neglects the impacts in other markets and some externalities. As a result, the integrated impacts of the project cannot be exactly understood. This study puts forth a new transport planning method, namely method combining demand forecast and impact analysis, based on traffic demand model and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. It aims to improve the science and dynamic levels of transport planning through simulating the social and economic systems in which the infrastructure is located and analyzing the causalities as accurately as possible. First, by taking arteri- al highway as an example, impacts for infrastructure construction are analyzed in detail. Second, new idea and structure of the new planning method is given out. That is to further analyze the impacts happened outside the transport market as well as fully forecast the demands. We suggest that CGE model is the most effective tool to analyze the impact and simulate the system. Third, detailed thinking of applying CGE model in transport planning is put forth, i.e. construction of model structure, issues concerning model calibration etc. At last, considering the detailed structure of the CGE model, mechanism and method for connecting demand forecast and impact analysis in transport planning are suggested.更多还原