【作者】 张志华； 杨浩；

【Author】 Zhang Zhihua , Yang Hao(School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044)

【机构】 北京交通大学交通运输学院；

【摘要】 交通运输部门正成为我国能源消费增长最快的部门之一。本文在分析模型基础上,评价了1990-2000年期间我国运输能源消费与运输周转量、各运输方式能源消费强度和分担率之间的关系。结果如下:(1)2000年,按各运输方式能源消费强度从高到低排序,依次为民航、公路、管道、铁路和水路;并且综合能源消费强度增高,即运输能源效率没有得到改善。(2)运输能源消费的增加主要是由于运输周转量的增加。(3)高能源消费强度运输方式分担率的提高导致综合能源消费强度增大。与其他运输方式不同,道路和管道运输的能源消费强度分别增大。进而,预测了2020年道路运输能源消费,将占运输能源总消费的五分之四以上。因此,提高道路运输能源效率是减少运输能源消费,实现交通运输可持续发展的重要措施之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transportation sector is becoming one of the most rapidly growing energy consumers in China. Based on the analytical model, this paper estimates the change in energy use, transport volumes, energy intensity and modal mix in Chinese transport during the period 1990 - 2000. The results are following:(1) Air, road, pipeline, rail and water are with the descendent trends of modal energy intensity in 2000; and aggregate energy intensity has increased, that is, energy efficiency has not been improved.(2) The enormous increase in transport energy use is mainly due to the increase of transport volumes. (3) The shift towards more energy intensive modes results in the increase of aggregate energy intensity. Unlike those of other modes, energy intensities of road and pipeline have increased. Further, the road energy use in 2020 is predicted, accounting for more than four fifths of the total future transport energy use. So improvement in road energy efficiency is one of the most important measures to decrease transport energy consumption and realize the sustainable development of the Chinese transportation system.更多还原