【作者】 吴军；

【机构】 对外经济贸易大学；

【摘要】 本文以经济的高速增长和体制转轨所引致的经济均衡机制转换对货币中性或非中性的影响,探索经济转轨时期货币政策的有效性问题,按这样的分析逻辑展开讨论:⑴定义货币中性或非中性的涵义,提出货币中性或非中性的判断有一个“中性→非中性→中性”的演化过程的看法,并认为这一过程一般由货币自身功能强弱的演变相关,而货币自身功能的强弱又在很大程度上取决于货币形态结构的变化;从理论和实证两个角度,分析了货币形态结构变化对货币的产出效应的影响,推断出M1占M2比重的下降,决定了货币的产出效应减弱,体现出货币由非中性向中性的转化过程的结论,并认为这以转化过程主要与经济均衡机制的转换相联系;⑶提出了在实现经济高速增长的同时完成体制转换是我国转轨经济的显著特征的看法,进而分析了这一过程对我国的经济均衡机制由资源约束型向需求约束型转化的决定作用;⑷运用实证分析方法,推断出由资源约束型向需求约束型转化过程将通过金融深化和收入增长两条途径,对货币形态结构发生影响,促使货币总体的交易媒介功能及其产出效应逐渐减弱,导致货币由非中性向中性转化。结论:随着经济的高速增长和体制转轨,经济均衡机制由资源约束型短缺经济向需求约束型过剩经济过渡,货币对实质经济的影响也逐渐减弱,处于由“非中性”向“中性”转变的过程之中,从而削弱了货币政策对扩张有效需求、刺激经济增长的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article argues the effectiveness of the monetary policy according to the research for the influence of economy-balance mechanism, which is caused by the high-speed development and transition of the economy ,on the neutrality(or non-neutrality) of the currency during the period of the change of financial structure. By this means, ⑴ give the definition of the neutrality(or non-neutrality) of the currency and present that the criterion of neutral(or non-neutral)currency is varied with the process from neutrality to non-neutrality ,then to non-neutrality which is related to the function of the currency that is determined by the change of currency formation structure;⑵ analyze the influence of the change of currency formation on monetary output effect through theoretic and practical methods, make the conclusion that the decrease of M1/M2 determines the slack of the monetary output effect, which presents the transformation process from neutral currency to non-neutral currency which is related to the transformation of economy-balance mechanism; ⑶ present that during the period of transition economy in China , the outstanding character which plays an important role in the transformation of economy-balance mechanism from resource-constrained to demand-constrained is the completion of mechanism transformation accompanied by the high-speed development of the economy;⑷ conclude that the transformation from resource-constrained to demand-constrained will weaken the monetary medium function and its output effect by ways of deepening finance and increasing income, which leads the currency transformation from non- neutrality to neutrality. The conclusion is that with the high-speed development of economy and the change of financial structure ,the economy-balance mechanism will be transferred from resource-constrained scarce economy to demand-constrained surplus economy. In the transformation from “non-neutrality” to “neutrality”, the influence of the currency on material economy will also be gradually reduced, which will weaken the monetary policy functions both on expanding effective demand and stimulating economy development更多还原